Economists, Meteorologists, and Stockbrokers

Dr. Milton Friedman, author of "Free to Choose" and a Nobel prize winning economist, on stated on "Meet the Press" that, like the weatherman, economists are not popular, often discounted, yet people still want to hear a forecast from them.  Forecasts, on the weather or the economy, help to us either plan or brace ourselves. 

In the aftermath of the 2008 financial meltdown, many were looking to the experts to sort out what happened but more importantly seeking insight as to what the future held.  Fortunately, the US and World enconomies averted a depression-like collapse.  Nevertheless, I find myself monitoring the financial news more closely now than in years past and listening to the experts in the field.

About a year ago in the gym, where many stockbrokers go to work out, I would listen to the locker room chatter as to their market prognostications.  One such broker often said little but sat back and listenened.  After everyone left, I decided to ask for his thoughts.  Borrowing from Dr. Friedman, I prefaced my question with "like the weatherman, people dismiss stockbroker forecasts on the market but what do you think?"  He laughed and shared that he predicted that an 11,000 Dow was possible in about a year.  Just as he got ready to walk out, he turned and "tomorrow will be sunny with a 50% chance of rain". 

He was right on both counts.