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"The Bucket List"

The movie was a bit slow at times and was not what I expected.  However, it was a very nice movie with themes of friendship, value, family, and impacting others.  At the very end, we saw that Frank Capra III was the executive producer of this movie.  Not sure of his involvement and influence on the movie, but it did have Capraesque qualities.

The combination of two great talents in Morgan Freeman and Jack Nicholson can result in a good movie.

Why do we reward bad behavior?

Recently, I saw where former NY Governor Eliot Spitzer now has a show on CNN.  It was just a few years ago that he resigned in disgrace.   Several years earlier, I saw Monica Lewinksy who had landed a role on a TV reality show.  I had read recently that former Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich may have a TV show in the works.  


Americans are very forgiving.  But, we have to ask ourselves: why do we reward individuals with the limelight of TV shows?  What message does this send to our children and those who strive to do the right thing daily?  

Once the great and mighty Blockbuster

Today, I rode by "Blockbuster" in Short Pump.  There were no cars in its parking lot.  At first, I wondered if if had gone out of business.  Then, I realized that it had no business.  The once bustling store for video rentals was completely empty.  I recall waiting in long lines to check out.  The impact of NetFlix, cable's pay-per-view, iTunes, and other on-line services have brought this business close to the brink.

Then, I drove past Staples to see signs for Amazon's Kindle.  Hard to believe that a few years ago, the Kindle was the rage.  Bragging rights belonged to those who owned one.  Then, Apple introduced the iPad.  Now, the Kindle is far more affordable but less attractive than the iPad.   

Now, Amazon is being challenged by an upstart on-line service via http://www.diapers.com/

Today's business climate does not let the successful to sit back on their laurels too long.  The pace of change is as Bill Gates's book "Business At the Speed of Thought". 

Time for another clarion call

In the 1960's, President Kennedy communicated his vision for America to successfully land a man on the moon and return him safely to Earth before the end of the decade.  That call and challenge unleashed the American pioneer and competitive spirit.  With that clarion call,  many Americans entered our engineering programs and became direct or indirect contributors to our space program.  We were going to beat the Russians to the Moon, no matter what.  

Fifty years later, most of those engineers have either retired or passed away.  Now, China and India produce 7 engineers for every 1 that our country graduates.

We need a President with the vision and boldness to exhort: "we as a nation will free itself from the twin evils of foreign oil and capital by 2020 through living within our means, shared sacrifice, and unleashing our innovative spirit to develop new technologies to fuel transportation."  With that, we need a new call for engineers and scientists to help us to accomplish this.

That is leadership and that is what we desperately need.  Americans need to hear that encouragement and be part of that vision.

The next bubble?

Some market watchers seem to believe that the Chinese have begun dumping U.S. treasuries and will reduce their purchases of them.  What does this mean?  Hard to say.  Some would say this spells doom and gloom in terms of the Federal Reserve printing money, euphemistically referred to as quantitative easing, which translates in time into hyperinflation.  Others predict higher interest rates which will choke off a housing recovery and impact consumer spending.  Some predict for the U.S. the same as what has happened in Japan: over a decade of stagnant economic growth.

Regardless, we as a nation must reduce our reliance on foreign capital and soon.  The Arabs have had us over the oil barrel for years.  Detroit responded with SUVs and other gas guzzlers.  It seems to me that the Chinese have us over the proverbial financial barrel.  To this, we have responded by borrowing more money.  What happens if our actions anger the Chinese and they refuse to lend us any more money?  Hard to believe that we have allowed ourselves to be so indebted to the Chinese.  They are now the world's banker and we the world's largest debtor.

This reminds me of one of the final scenes in "The Patriot" when General Cornwaliss, seeing surrender at Yorktown as inevitable, lamented to himself something to the effect "how could this have happened?"  

Tax versus subsidize

Their is an economic adage: want more of something, subsidize it; want less, tax it.

Our government subsidizes home ownership via tax deductions on mortgage interest and certain property taxes.  For decades, the government subsidized social welfare and corporate welfare.

The government taxes income, property, investment, savings, and many commodities.  Hence, look at our convoluted tax system that perpetuates both legal and illegal tax avoidance.  The politicians bemoan our nation's low personal savings rate yet taxes the interest on our savings accounts.  

Oddly, the politicians demagogue reduced capital gains, accelerated depreciation, and investment tax credits as favoring the wealthy and corporations despite how these measures have historically been a boon to the economy.

Several respected economists have recently lamented over the lack of business acumen and market understanding by those in Congress.  We have to ask ourselves as we approach the November elections:  should we continue to entrust our nation's economic future to those who have never owned a business, had to make a payroll, or even picked up an economics textbook?   Our collective lack of such scrutiny has given us this dysfunctional government and we have indeed subsidized it.  

de Todqueville on "Democracy in America"

"The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public's money." 


 --  Alexis de Tocqueville
 
 
I sought for the greatness and genius of America in her commodious harbors and her ample rivers - and it was not there . . . in her fertile fields and boundless forests and it was not there . . . in her rich mines and her vast world commerc - and it was not there . . . in her democratic Congress and her matchless Constitution - and it vas not there. Not until I went into the churches of America and heard her pulpits flame with righteousness did I understand the secret of her genius and power. America is great because she is good, and if America ever ceases to be good, she will cease to be great.



 --  Alexis de Tocqueville

David McCullough and "1776"

In an interview about his book "1776", the author David McCullough explained why he wrote it.  He described the seemingly hopeless state of our fledgling country at that time.  There were British warships menacing and sinking American ships at sea with little our nation could do in response.  General George Washington commanded an unskilled, undermanned, and ill-equipped army to fight the world's greatest military power at that time.  Things looked very bleak indeed.

Upon reading and hearing the countless commentaries on how 9/11 was America's darkest hour, Mr. McCullough asserts that the period circa 1776 was far darker, even darker than the Great Depressions.  Most Americans just do not realize it.  "That is why I wrote it" asserts Mr. McCullough.
 
As dark and gloomy as things seem now, we can draw strength from our storied past.  If we, as a nation, are willing to take the strong medicine to cure our financial and social ills, we can restore ourselves to good health.    We need only to look to our past.

Social Security to go without increase for 2nd straight year - NBC12 News, Weather Sports, Traffic, and Programming Guide for Richmond, VA |

This article misses the point. Sadly, many Americans rely upon Social Security as their sole source of retirement income. It was never intended as such. It was designed to be a supplement.

The consumer price index (CPI), the measure used to calculate cost of living increases, is heavily weighted toward energy costs and interest rates. Typically, the elderly are not purchasing homes with mortgages and not having to buy large quantities of gas for their cars.

In the early 80's when inflation was running in the 13-14% range, Social Security recipients were receiving hefty cost of living increases while those supporting the fund were receiving far less in terms of raises. In essence, "fixed incomes" was a misnomer in the realm of Social Security. Now that inflation has been very low, there are no increases.

The sad truth is that we cannot have it both ways: hefty increases when inflation is high and increases when there is no inflation as per the CPI.


Social Security to go without increase for 2nd straight year - NBC12 News, Weather Sports, Traffic, and Programming Guide for Richmond, VA

The government we deserve

Less than 50% of Americans vote.  That statistic is startling given the enormous privilege it is to vote.  Plus, we have a civic responsibility to hold our elected officials accountable.  Sadly, myself included, we have not held up our end of the bargain.  We have let our government do as it pleases.  It passes legislation, like health care reform, that most Americans are against.  It borrows money from foreign nations to fund programs we can no longer afford.

We have the government we deserve because we have abdicated our responsibility to hold elected officials accountable.  The late Dr. Milton Friedman once said that we need no more than to look in the mirror to affix blame.   I do not believe that the framers of our government envisioned career politicians serving sometimes up to 40 years in Congress.  This should not be and we have the power to make a change.

We have an opportunity in a few weeks to send a warning shot across the bow of Congressional hubris.  Let's all use that power individually and collectively lest we let the current group in Congress to continue pushing us toward the precipice.  Let's not continue giving these out of touch officials a free pass.

The long, lost days of financial prudence

During WWII and to stimulate the economy during the Great Depression, our country ran up huge public deficits.  President Eisenhower lamented the need to run a negligible federal deficit in the 1950's.  Also in the 1950's there was an Iowa Congressman, H.R. Gross, who would ask "who is going to pay for this" when new legislation was introduced in the House.  Borrowing money was not taken lightly.

Many economists believe that unless we change our spending habits, and soon, we could be the next Greece and face sovereign default.  How long will China continue to buy our U.S. Treasury notes?  Should we be so indebted to a Communist nation?  How could this happen to the nation that helped win WWII, put the first man on the moon, and brought about the end of the Cold War?

Somewhere in the past, we lost our way on the road of personal financial responsibility, too.  Credit cards flourished.  Home equity lines became far to easy to obtain and access.  Many used their homes' equity like ATMs.  Today, many owe more on their home than it is worth.  How could this happen to the citizens of the world's wealthiest nation?

The more important question is, can we turn this around?  The answer is yes and there is enough time, if we start right now.

A time for boldness

"The world's largest borrower cannot be the world's greatest power indefinitely" -- Dr. Larry Somers, current Chairman of President Obama's Economic Council.

For over 30 years now, I have heard of our country's national debt and unfunded Social Security obligations referred to as "a ticking time bomb".  The bookstores have been littered with the "doom and gloom" and "economic Armageddon" books.  Eventually, the time bomb is going to detonate unless bold action is taken.

In the 1980 book "A Time for Action" former Treasury Secretary William Simon outlined bold and drastic steps to bring our fiscal house in order.  Some of those measures have been implemented.  Many have not.

Our dysfunctional Congress continues to thumb its collective nose at the very electorate that voted its members into office.

Want to take a bold step and send an ear-shattering message to Washington?  Vote AGAINST EVERY incumbent this November, including those affiliated with your political party of preference.  I plan to do so, even against Rep. Eric Cantor.  They need to hear from us.  

Be bold and encourage your friends to be bold.  It is time to send Congress a message that we the people want to avert a financial calamity.  It can start with voting in responsible representatives who will do the right thing; not what their lobbyists, political supporters, and biggest donators want.  

We have just enough time -- if we start right now.

How to fix our current economic mess?

Having spent hours listening to economists, political leaders, and financial analysts, via both podcasts and audiobooks, here is a list of their recurring themes:

1.  reduce government spending on entitlements, including Social Security and Medicare (retirement age must increase; age 65 is too young to retire these days)

2.  beyond entitlements, reduce the federal government's deficit

3.  enact permanent, not temporary, tax measures to spur business capital investment (this formula was part of the Kennedy tax cuts in the 60's and Reagan's in the 80's)

4.  create an innovation bank to spur the creation of new ideas and harness America's entrepreneurial spirit

5.  foster collaboration between government and business on # 4

6.  emulate JFK's clarion call from the 60's to reach the moon and apply that energy and vision toward energy freedom from imported oil (focus on getting more college graduates in engineering)

7.  hold our government accountable by using our right to vote incumbents out

8.  overhaul the entire tax system to foster savings, not consumption (eliminate popular tax deductions like 2nd mortgages)

9.  strong leadership that tells Americans that we must make tough choices to reduce spending (like Gov. Chris Christie in NJ)

If we do not take bold measures, like the ones listed above, I fear that we will enter a prolonged period, even decades, of stagnant growth and a decline in our living standard. 

Raising Taxes In a Recession

In the early the 1930's, President Roosevelt became concerned about the burgeoning federal deficits.  Thus, he enacted tax increases which many believe caused businesses not to hire and fostered more economic sluggishness.  Thus, the Great Depression continued.

Eighty years later, President Obama is deliberating as to whether to extend the "Bush tax cuts".  Allowing them to expire is analogous to raising taxes during a downturn.

Increased tax rates coupled with the business uncertainty created by Health Care Reform and Financial Industry Regulation has caused the current recovery to stall.  Yet, our political leaders bemoan our current high unemployment levels.

There are so many parallels between the "Great Recession" and "Great Depression".  I exhort our policy makers to open up their history books and avoid making more of the same mistakes.

"13 Bankers" by Simon Johnson & James Kwak

The book chronicles how the banking industry has ascended into the largest and most powerful political lobby contributing hundreds of millions of dollars in support of key members of Congress's financial committees.  One columnist recently commented on how members of Congress should wear jackets depicting their sponsor's logos on their backs akin to NASCAR.  I suspect that Congress coddles to the wishes of their biggest contributors and turn their attention to the constituents around election time.

The book chronicles the revolving door between Pennsylvania Avenue and Wall Street.  The list of Wall Street executives who served in key Presidential posts, such as Treasury Secretary, reads like a Who's Who in financial America.

Our 7th President, Andrew Jackson, had a tremendous distrust of banks, particularly a central bank.  He had feared, rightfully so, that such a bank or strong banking industry would be the target of bribes and payoffs in exchange for favorable political treatment.  It appears that President Jackson was correct.

White Collar Structural Unemployment

In the 1980's, America witnessed its blue collar ranks decline during the '81-82 recession.  Economists often referred to this as structural unemployment.  In recent years, however, white collar workers have become part of the structural mix.  Today on Bloomberg, an industry analyst predicted that in the next 18-24 months, 80,000 financial industry jobs, primarily in fixed income investments, will be lost.  The reason?  Structural unemployment due to that sector's slowness and unwillingness to embrace new technology.  Whereas, one can easily get stock quotes and effect transactions on-line, such is not the case in the fixed income sector.

Hawley–Smoot Tariff Act of 1930

It originally started out to be a political vehicle by which to gain the votes of America's agricultural constituency.  Once the bill wound its way through Congress and was enacted into law, it set off a world wide trade war.  Many historians and economists believe that this act contributed to and helped to elongate the Great Depression. 


Fast forward 80 years:


"The US House of Representatives this week approved a Bill that would let companies petition for duties on imports from China to compensate for the effect of an undervalued yuan. Also this week, Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega warned of a global "currency war" as his country weighs a higher tax on capital inflows."

Many academics today lament the lack of economic literacy and knowledge of history that many in Congress display.  This lack of wisdom could cause history to repeat itself.

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." -- George Santayana